Will we let Taiwan go?

China’s most recent military incursion involved a total blockade of Taiwan. It seems the CCP is thinking exactly what many US analysts have been thinking. China will most likely quarantine/blockade the island – an act just short of war.

If China does impose a quarantine or a blockade on Taiwan, it would be interesting to see what the US response would be. If no shots are fired, would the US still feel compelled to start a war? My bet is that the US won’t intervene, and this is where the problems would begin. China would be able to take TSMC, leaving the US without the necessary chips to keep our economy going if they chose to impose export controls. They would finally get their prized chips, leaving the US economy in shambles.

However, if the US does decide to intervene, it wouldn’t be the first time a war was driven at least partly for economic reasons. From the Opium Wars to the Spanish-American War, nations fought to protect their economic interests. In more recent memory, the control of oil resources was a major factor in our involvement in the Gulf War. So should the US effectively fire the first shot in the event of a quarantine/blockade? Or will we just let Taiwan go into the arms of the Chinese?